Poverty in Indonesia is not just an unfortunate reality but seems systematically entrenched.  While difficult to definitively claim that poverty is intentionally "built by design", the policies implemented by the government suggest that fi...

During our market outlook in July 2024, we stated that a limited fiscal budget will likely force Prabowo to make a choice between starting his own legacy or continuing existing legacy.  Specifically, there will come a time when Prabowo wil...

Since last year, we have been bearish on Indonesia's domestic consumption, specifically among low-middle income household (read here: Structurally Weak & Bearish). Whereby, one of the main negative factors was due to the rise in online ga...

Government has released a regulation on Tapera (Tabungan Perumahan Rakyat), subjecting a mandatory participation for everyone (public, private, self-employed) despite not all of these individuals could benefit from the programs (unlike BPJS...

At the beginning of March, we discussed our views on Rupiah (read here: IHSG - Mind The Gap At 6,900 & Rupiah To Break Above 16,000) with a target of 16,200 which is now achieved. Our main reasons are US interest rate to remain "higher-for-...

At the beginning of this month, we wrote our expectation that USDIDR might break the 16,000 psychological level (read here: IHSG - Mind The Gap At 6,900) and close the gap at 16,200. We remain risk-off for now. Globally, inflation to likel...

From the beginning of this year, we have been calling for our bearish outlook on general consumption that is starting to get noticed by investors despite their initial pushbacks. Our premises are due to lower income & wider inequality (read...

Climate is a "public good"; it is for everyone. Although it is not new, the topic surrounding pollution has been trending lately. In this research, we want to discuss the trade-off between pollution and the economy. Energy is an essential...

We believe that consumption in Indonesia is facing structural weakness coming from a paradigm shift to export-oriented sectors combined with a change in employment dynamic, whereby more labors are going into low-quality informal sectors whi...

In the past 10 years, investment has been one of the pillars for the government to push economic growth and, consequently, to open more employment opportunity in the country. Total investment, including FDI & DDI, reached IDR1,207tn in 2022...