Research

Rupiah To Break Above 16,000

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Algo Research Team

Economics | Mar 24, 2024 | Views: 1605

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Key Summary:

  • Central banks are losing the inflation flight
  • Yen & Yuan currency war to feed into IDR
  • FX reserves unlikely to stop IDR depreciation

At the beginning of this month, we wrote our expectation that USDIDR might break the 16,000 psychological level (read here: IHSG - Mind The Gap At 6,900) and close the gap at 16,200. We remain risk-off for now.


Globally, inflation to likely accelerate (rate cuts despite rising inflation, fiscal stimulus). Domestically, we see outflows from Indonesia (especially bonds) as investors start to assess government policy outlook (high deficit, more borrowing).

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