IHSG is trading +4% above its previous peak, but Sri-Kehati, which is more reflective of Indonesian market catalysts, is still -8% below its all-time high.  Other main indexes that show the broader market sentiment by large or liquid stock...

In early August, we called to stay away from equity (read here: Starting August with A Crisis) as it appeared that markets were heading into downside due to deleveraging of carry trade and US data indicating a slowdown. However, the corre...

The Black-Swan event. Volatility is melting higher. Sell first, fundamental later. Global financial markets in major sell-offs, negative corrections. Past 1-month Japan market (NIKKEI) crashed -25%, US indexes (NASDAQ, S&P500) down -5% to...

IHSG has outperformed significantly in July 2024, up +3.3% or +8.6% since its bottom in June. The performance was driven by institutional flows buying large-cap banks in the past 1-month: BBCA (+2%), BBRI (+7%), BMRI (+6%) and BBNI (+9%)...

Market is so bearish that our contrarian mind is starting to become more tactically bullish. Buy the dip. After 3 months of waiting, our IHSG target of 6,900 that we called in early March (read here: Mind The Gap) is finally achieved larg...

Accelerating inflation, foreign outflows, hawkish monetary, weakening macro have dominated equity market narratives recently, in-line with our expectation from early March (read here: Mind The Gap 6,900) when IHSG was at 7,300. Although t...

Ignore what they say, follow what they do. This has been our thinking about the Fed as they have been making errors and changing policy outlook too quickly (incorrect transitory view in 2022, hawkish/dovish flip-flop in a matter of days in...

Our contrarian neutral to bearish view for IHSG in 2024 is starting to get noticed by the market after pushback from investors & traders in the last few months. IHSG closed -1.2% on the first day of April, marking the start of a seasonally...

This week, the Indonesian stock market got a surprise where IDX launched a new special monitoring board stage II for 221 stocks that meet 11 criteria and trading these stocks is done through periodic call auction. The magnitude in terms o...

The inauguration of the next Indonesian President will commence in October-24, where the new Cabinet positions would likely be formed in 4Q24. However, we have started to hear rumblings within the financial market institutional community ab...