Research

IHSG: Mind The Gap At 6,900

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Algo Research Team

Market | Mar 03, 2024 | Views: 1583

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Key Summary:

  • Is inflation accelerating? A downside tail-risk
  • If so, will interest rate/FFR be cut this year?
  • Foreign flows to banks are starting to fade

Our view remains neutral with bias leaning to the downside as catalysts are still absent in IHSG. Mind the technical gap at 6,850-6,900 (-6%) which was created back in Nov-23 when the big-caps started to rally as the market was overjoyed by the prospect of a Fed pivot.


However, market pricing of FFR cut this year has fallen significantly from 7x last year to now 3x cuts, starting in June (from initially in March). This is because of inflation risk that is starting to emerge as the US economy is supported by government fiscal stimulus.

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