Research

Bonds: The Less Foreign Money, The Easier To Control

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Algo Research Team


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Key Summary:


  • Foreign ownership has declined substantially
  • Local institutions & retail to increase government bond ownership
  • Expect bond yield around 6-6.5% in 2024

Many of us are not aware that in 2019 the Minister of Finance had deliberately aimed to lower foreign ownership in domestic government bonds to 20%, where at the time it was still around 38%. As quoted, the 20% foreign ownership target in government bonds was desirable in the short term period as domestic investors were expected to get larger. We expect yield to continue its downtrend as it is necessary for the government to lower its interest expense, while buying would likely come from local institutional and retail investors. 2024 bond yield expectation is around 6-6.5%.



Less foreign ownership, more local institutions and retail


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