Research

Indonesia: Slow 1Q23 GDP Growth

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Algo Research Team

Economics | May 08, 2023 | Views: 84

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Key Summary:

  • An uneven K-shaped economic recovery
  • Structural slowdown in consumption, while export faces headwinds
  • Government spending as the reliable upside to growth this year

1Q23 GDP posted +5.03% YoY growth driven by Trade (Export: +11.7%, Import: +2.8%) and Household Consumption (+4.5%). This was at the lower range of government's 5-5.3% target for this year. We maintain our view that GDP will likely grow <5% due to decelerating export (global cyclical downturn) and consumption (erosion of purchasing power). One upside risk is government spending in 2H23 with an all time high tax revenue and cash level, although the recent IDR350tn money laundering case could delay such spending.


Overheard Bursa: "With low commodity prices, Indonesia GDP grows 5%. With high commodity prices, Indonesia GDP grows 5% as well"

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