Research

IHSG: It Is Time To Sell

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Algo Research Team

Market | Mar 07, 2023 | Views: 177

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Key Summary:

  • Sell to manage risks, no rush to buy now
  • Liquidity condition is getting worse
  • Equity inflows have been minimal

We think it is time to start selling in March (sell on strength or cut loss to protect capital) and increase cash position. As mentioned since the beginning of the year, the reason is that IHSG is still lacking catalysts and momentum, while the growth drivers of last year will slow down in 2023 (read here and here). We are also in a period of high volatility (global narrative changes every month) that is intensified as liquidity condition is getting worse for IHSG.


This means that risks are skewed to the downside for open trading positions in portfolio. It is best to not get FOMO and be POMO (Pleasure Of Missing Out) as there is no rush to buy now. Start to enter again around 6,500 and be greedy if market falls below 6,200. Remember that if IHSG is down by -5%, individual stocks can go down by -10% to -15%. Additionally, our favorite chart of the year is that IHSG movement in 2019-2020 and now is too similar. Trust the price action, fundamental will follow.

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