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Deceleration of Export Growth Is A Sign of Peak Trade In Indonesia

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Algo Research Team

Economics | Oct 24, 2022 | Views: 33

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Key Summary:

  • Sep-22 export rose +20% YoY, below estimate of +29% and previous month +30%
  • Biggest export's alpha has been to India this year
  • China is another upside but remains questionable, while coal is set to decline past winter

Export data has been encouraging this year, but the pace has decelerated with Sep-22 export up +20% YoY, slower than analysts estimate of +29% and Aug-22 at +30%. This is still positive, as it is much higher than the normalized average in prior years, though indicates a sign of peak as the outlook seen across global trade is muted with majority of economies are now facing slow-down to recession.



One country that has been buying our export is India, which is likely purchasing our CPO and coal. India has doubled our monthly export, averaging USD2bn this year vs. USD1bn normalized. But this is now slowing down as we think their domestic productions are catching up. In total India has imported USD18bn up to Sep-22 vs. USD13bn in 2021.

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