If Hormuz Stays Closed in April, Energy Market Breakdown Could Hit After May

Key Summary:
- Supply risks are seen across the energy complex, not just O&G
- Flows remain limited despite ceasefire, inventory used for cushion
- Pre-war oil supplies from the Persian Gulf are fully depleted in April
United States and Iran have made substantial attempts to de-escalate the war by announcing a ceasefire agreement, which is reportedly extended from 2-weeks to 4-weeks to allow more time for negotiations.
However, as of the time of writing, no formal confirmation has been announced by either government, although the United States Press Secretary reaffirmed that discussions are ongoing and “productive.”