Indonesia: Slowing Consumption, Rising Prices. Stagflation Risk?

Key Summary:
- Suboptimal private consumption; IDR800tn spending gap
- Government policies driving supply-side inflation higher
- Structural economic issues and risks must be addressed
The Indonesian government has recently released several closely watched economic indicators, including the country’s 3Q25 GDP growth and inflation rate as of Oct-25.
We observe an interesting pattern where household consumption growth has decelerated, yet prices have continued to climb meaningfully, raising the question of whether Indonesia is experiencing stagflation risks.