Oil +18% YTD, What's Driving It Higher?

Key Summary:
- Geopolitical escalation by the West
- Oil demand & supply balance deficit in 2Q-3Q
- Oil-related stocks watchlist
Oil is one of the best outperforming assets this year, which increased +18% YTD and surpassed equity market returns globally including Nasdaq. Many reasons are driving up oil price in 2024, including supply & demand conditions, geopolitics and monetary policy.
These factors are currently supporting near-term oil price positively. But, if a big supply (OPEC+ & US production, US SPR release), labor market worsening (higher unemployment, >4% in US) or more hawkish monetary policy occur (hike vs. cuts), it could reverse oil price lower.