Research

IHSG: Indonesia Election Impact To Market

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Algo Research Team

Market | Feb 13, 2024 | Views: 1997

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Key Summary:

  • Is consensus already front-running 1 round for Prabowo to win?
  • Market movement likely mirror 2019 (fundamental & policies)
  • Which candidate is bullish or bearish based on Algo retail investors sentiment?

It's the Presidential election in Indonesia tomorrow. Don't forget to vote! We would be monitoring the quick-count results from various political surveys, which will be updated on our website. Also, in the last section here we shared our Algo market sentiment surveys on the election with 515 participants, mostly IHSG retail investors. With that in mind, this research will discuss potential market movement and why we think it would be a reflection of 2019.




We believe that majority of analysts and market are expecting 1-round of election with Prabowo-Gibran as the most favored to win. This is in-line with recent political surveys, which suggest that Prabowo's electability is the highest at 51% (average of 10 surveys) followed by Anies at 24% and Ganjar at 19%. But, note that the average undecided voters is 6%, meaning that it is still a very close call that could swing in different directions.

How was our research?

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