Markets Are Rejecting the Fed’s Monetary Policy

Key Summary:
- Market risk-off since first rate cut
- Monetary policy error is likely
- Inflation could restart in 2025
Back in August and September, anticipation of the first Fed rate cut fueled optimism across asset classes. However, it turned out to be a “sell-on-news” event, as markets shifted to risk-off afterwards.
We have successfully expected this sell-off in September (read here: Bearish thesis has played out) and now the Indonesian markets are back to August level as well, erasing all the gains from interest rate cut.