Is It 25 or 50bps Interest Rate Cut Next Month?

Key Summary:
- The Fed opens the door for the start of a gradual easing cycle
- Weakening US labor market & growth are the main concerns
- But, its long-term view is more hawkish due to inflation risks
During the annual Jackson Hole conference last week, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled the central bank’s openness to cut interest rates, starting at the next monetary policy meeting in September 2025.
Between the lines: The Fed’s main concern was the deterioration in US job market, stating that “this slowdown is much larger than assessed just a month ago,” though reiterating that it does not see a “slack,” which it wants to avoid.